FPL Impact of Penalty-Takers

I have a Google Sheet (here) with years worth of EPL penalty statistics. Please feel free to copy and pivot as you see fit. There is some great information to use for FPL in addition to general soccer knowledge if you’re that kind of a nerd… like me.

  • Teams outside the top four average 3-4 penalties per season
  • Teams inside the top four average 5-6 penalties per season
  • Penalty-takers have a ~80% conversion rate
  • Average penalties awarded per season for the last 10 years - 92 (4.5 per team)

Outside of general peno metrics, below are some callouts from past seasons and their potential FPL impact on the 2018-19 season in my honest, non-expert opinion.

 

Penalty-Takers for 2018-19: Buy or Stay away

 

Harry Kane

  • Penalties Taken - 3 out of 3 (missed 1)
  • 6 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

It’s hard to calculate the bonus points due to Kane taking 2 penos against Liverpool in the dying seconds of a game (I’m really trying to push out of my memory bank). He missed one and converted the other. Also, he converted another penalty against Burnley in a hat-trick performance. So, I estimated as best I could.

But in any rate, Spurs should average 5-6 penalties a season being in the top four in that, and Kane has taken 83% of all penalties in the past 3 seasons. I would expect more opportunities for easy goals and bonus from a player that apparently doesn’t need too many penos to get to 30 goals in a season.

Verdict - Buy

 

Glen Murray

  • Penalties Taken - 6 out of 7 (missed 2)
  • 20 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

Old man Glenn only earned 111 total FPL points with 20 of those points coming from penalties last season. And that’s 7 penos for a bottom-half of the table club (which the average is 3-4 per season). For a consistent starting forward, he really doesn’t do enough in open-play to justify a punt on your FPL team.

Verdict - Stay Away

 

Luka Milivojevic

  • Penalties Taken - 8 out of 10 (missed 1)
  • 46 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

He has taken 83% of the penalties since he has joined the club 2 seasons ago. Weirdly, Crystal Palace has averaged 7-8 penalties per season for the past 4 seasons which is incredibly above average based on their position and overall final third possession. Fast wingers and direct play really goes a long way in terms of getting the ref to point to the spot I guess.

And because of CP’s glut of spot-kicks, a third of Luka’s 144 overall FPL points came from penalties last season. That’s a scary concept if Mili comes in at £6.0+. You’re basically gambling that Palace earns the same amount of penalties as last year which could happen or they could drift towards the mean. Risky for my taste.

Verdict - Stay Away (If he’s £6.0+)

 

Troy Deeney

  • Penalties Taken - 5 out of 6 (missed 2)
  • 9 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

Why am I adding Fat Boy Troy to this list? Because he has taken 100% of penalties in the past 3 years when he’s on the pitch. He is the only player in the EPL that takes all the penalties without any rotation. Some bad misses in addition to stupid suspensions really derailed a forgettable season for Troy (as well as Watford in general). Depending on their next inevitable manager - let’s see if he gets the playing time. If he’s on the pitch, he takes the penos.

Verdict - Buy

 

Jamie Vardy

  • Penalties Taken - 6 out of 6 (missed 1)
  • 24 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

Who says down the middle as hard as you can doesn’t work? Vardy had a wealth of penos last season and seems to be the primary spot-kick taker since splitting the duty with Mahrez for the past few seasons. I hope he doesn’t leave LCFC.

Verdict - Buy

 

Leighton Baines

  • Penalties Taken - 2 out of 7 (missed 0)
  • 14 FPL Points from Penalties (goal scored + bonus points - penalties missed)

I’m a big fan of any defender taking spot-kicks (2016-17 Milner anybody?!?), but Rooney took considerable market share from Baines last season. With Wazza on his way out and no Lukaku-esque striker to take the responsibility, I can see some more 6 points+bonus coming in for the experienced left-back.

Verdict - Buy

 

Players to Watch

  • Aboomerang - Took a few since he joined and gave some to Laca because he’s nice
  • Hazard - Chelsea only had 3 penos last season. Good shout if he’s still there
  • Agüero - ManCity rotated the penos, but Kun has been THE guy for spot-kicks for seasons
  • Noble - Captain. Leader. Legend. And a solid… jk. Don’t pick Forehead up

 

EPL Teams to Avoid for Penalty-Takers

Just looking at the trends for the past few years. Things might change, but some clubs like a bit of rotation with the responsibility of spot-kick duty. As a rule, I like FPL players which take >60% of the team’s penos. Below are some teams that spread out the penalties:

  • Burnley (if they ever get one)
  • Southampton
  • Manchester United
  • West Ham
  • Arsenal
  • Bournemouth
  • Wolves (6 penalties in the Championship with 6 different penalty-takers)

Lastly, I have to give some link juice to MyFootballFacts, EPLReview, and Transfermarkt for some great tables to reference for these types of metrics. Thanks buddies.

Let me know what you think. KThx

-2PepNolan